From bruce@ashbysolutions.com Thu Jan 17 18:52:47 2002
Subject:Re: The water is getting pretty darn muddy...

Eric,

>Wow, was it just yesterday that we had all the messages flying about
>the CX-3 price slashing and in only one day we have all this news of
>at least 2 new clones and possibly 1 new tonewheel organ?
>
>CX-3, VK-8, Nord Electro, BX-3...the market is getting pretty
>saturated with organ clones all of a sudden!
>
>My head is spinning! This is all really exciting and fun, but I had
>settled a while back that the CX-3 was the clone to beat with my XK-
>2 not too far behind. With the recent price drop on the CX-3, I was
>going to go ahead and buy one. Now that I hear about the VK-8, I
>almost want to know more about it before springing for the CX-3.

I actually liked the sound of the VK-7; I just didn't like the keyboard, I didn't think the Leslie sim was as good as it could be, and I didn't like the one vibrato setting available live per preset. The VK-8 seems to fix at least some of these points. It won't make me trade my CX-3, though, because I think the sim is great, I have gotten used to the action, and I like the layout of the switches and knobs.

>The BX-3 is cool, but too much for my gigging purposes. Now the VK-
>8...that could be a whole other story. The VK-7 is already a darn
>good clone. If Roland makes this VK-8 come in around the $1200-1500
>range, which is what their copy insinuates ("attractively
>priced")...

Don't hold your breath. 'Attractively priced' is one of those YMMV terms, and besides: I think they're referencing the VK-77 (same sound engine) as the beauty standard. ;^) I would expect it to come out with at least a $2200-2400 SRP, and to hold the line on discounting for six months to a year. That means more like a CX-3 competitor than anything else.

>will I be kicking myself for not waiting...? The VK-8
>does look almost *identical* to the VK-7 in size and layout is
>similar...I would love to know what the keys feel like.
>
>Shucks, this happened when I bought my XK-2. The CX-3 had just been
>announced but was 6 months away from shipping. I could not wait so
>here I am 2 years later getting the CX-3 during the tail end of its
>reign (maybe not...we'll have to see if the VK-8 is better). And
>Voce's Electro is also intriguing.

Well, let me add one more item: firmware. The XB-2 had a terrible first round of firmware, and both the VK-7 and CX-3 had their share of early issues. There's something to be said for buying a tried-and-true technology, as opposed to being the first one in the door. I'm a habitual early-adopter, and I pay the price for it from time to time.

Also, there's a perception, on this list and elsewhere, that modeling technology is very new, and that things are just going to get better and better over time. First, modeling isn't all that new: modeling products include the Nord Lead (1), the Yamaha AN1x, the Johnson line of amps, the Pod, the VK-7, and the CX-3. All of these items have been around for a bit, and some of them are even out of production. Many of the big gains in modeling technology are already past us.

Secondly, modeling will continue to gain capabilities, but the improvements will also rub up against cost-cutting measures. Everybody wants better products for less money, and sometimes both goals can't be met at the same time.

Thirdly, Hammond modeling is a comparatively easy task. We don't need a whole new generation of computer chips to run the model; we already have several methods of getting pretty close to the goal. The improvements from this point on will probably be subtle.

Actually, I'm going to broach a theory here: What happened at this year's NAMM is analogous to what happened to the dozens of PC manufacturers in the early 90's. A budding market was found -- in this case, a resurgence in the use of tonewheel organ sound -- and a number of players rushed to fill the void, all based on the potential customer base. Like the PC players before them, however, there isn't enough market for everybody to make good on their goals. Most of us are going to buy a CX-3 OR a VK-8, not a CX-3 AND a VK-8, right? [These two clones are just used as examples. I don't want to hear any comments about "Where's Voce?" or "What about Hammond?"] That means that eventually, everybody will get a clone they can live with, and the market will saturate. Once that point is reached, somebody will have to drop out of the race, and look for other markets. Will it be Roland? KORG? Ham-Suz? Voce? Nord? Hard to say at this point, but I can just about guarantee that two
of those players will not be in the $1-2K clone market in five years.

In the meantime, enjoy the feast!

Just my $0.02 ...

Regards,

-BW

--
Bruce Wahler
Ashby Solutions™ http://music.ashbysolutions.com
CloneWheel Support Group moderator
978.386.7389 voice/fax
bruce@ashbysolutions.com